All over the farm and the fields around me, the geese have been flying..
Honk, Honk, Honk
If we needed more signs that fall is here.. these lines of every changing moving, shifting V flocks of honkers would certainly be it..
They are still moving with ease.. Butterflies have left and are on their flight to warmer winter pastures..
Do you want to know what is not moving freely, STUFF.. stuff is not moving.. the great global supply chain.. the just in time delivery.. Its showing more and more strain.. a shipping load that metal box used to cost $5000 to rent, now it costs #30,000.. I want you to really think about it.. some really high end items have enough profit margin.. but there is a HUGE host of things, smaller things that we are so used to having on the shelves that do not have the profit margrin to make this possable..
I know, I know.. but Farmgal.. have you seen the prices.. everything is up, up UP.. yup.. the cost of everything is higher.. so they are passing on the extra cost of doing business.. I am not sure you read my blog if you believe that lol
I expect that most that read my blog understand that due to global factors (a host of them) that this is not a blip.. that while certain parts of canada are doing well enough with the health issues, while others are struggling that point in fact, we are going to find ourselves having a broad sweeping brush of inflation.
While we have rising costs across the board, (including lumber) what we do not have is rising incomes.. but we are about to see debt.. o yes.. those rising house prices which many bought into, taking out a healthy portion of the bank of mom/dad in terms of their extra (if you were lucky enough to have parents that could help you) means that a huge percentage of those that just got into the market are going to be house poor straight off and second, they are about to get their ass’s bitten with their variable rates..
Ah, the flip side is that those that were in their house’s, working from home, stable incomes and so on.. they suddenly found themselves with a extra 100,000 to 300,000 grand worth of house.. and I will bet a nickel that a swack of them took out huge lines of credit for “improvements” and yes I am sure some did put in pools, redo the kitchen and dropped 50 grand on landscaping..
Thing is.. lines of credit are still credit.. and they are interest rate connected as well.. I have so many friends that I like.. yes.. the house made X amount of money and so I took out and got X or Z or Y.. but here is the thing.. as long as it was “credit line” its not real money.. its credit.. its a loan.. its debt!
This big old house of cards has been being held up with bandaids, the feds have been pushing money out the door by the shovel ready programs.. it can’t keep it up.. Billions spent.. Billions more put out in.. you guessed it.. loans.. so many small, med an big business’s that have been held up by the programs.. once that bill comes due.. many will fail.. and so will all those let go..
If you have CASH on hand, then get ready for winter early this year.. I am not talking about buying bathroom paper products.. or the extra bag of beans etc.. they will make sure that the basic’s are in the stores and you should have extra on hand already by now..
I am talking about the extra’s you need for winter for your home, for your vehicles, for your farm, barns and so on.. pick up the feed now if you can because the price is only going to get worse, do not put off getting new winter tires if you need them, I do not know your home.. you do.. you most likely have a list.. make it, check it twice.. then check your house hold repair boxes and compare them..
and Remember the Golden Rule.. Two is one and one is none..
Enjoy these at least locally wonderful warm days of fall.. but remember.. winter is coming..